This Saturday, the 2012 Preakness Stakes Odds will get underway, as 11 horses go out in search of the second leg of the Triple Crown. Post positions have been drawn, and the horses are getting prepped to go to the gate at Pimlico Racetrack, and here at Cappers Mall, we are taking a look at the odds to win the 2012 Preakness Stakes, courtesy of Bookmaker Sportsbook!
On the inside, we don’t have a heck of a lot of good to say about #1 Tiger Walk (33/1) or #2 Teeth of the Dog (15/1). Tiger Walk is likely to end up getting jammed on the inside very quickly and be knocked out of this race essentially before it really even starts. The only thing to like about Teeth of the Dog is that he has a great run in the Wood Memorial to fall back on. The bad news is that Gemologist and Alpha, the two horses that he beat that day at Aqueduct, both ran relatively poorly at the Kentucky Derby, and neither has come with Teeth of the Dog to Pimlico.
#3 Pretension (33/1) is the only horse in the field that has won here at Pimlico. He did so on Kentucky Derby Saturday, beating a relatively weak field with a solid time of 1:45.70 at 1 1/16 miles. This is a horse that might be able to get out of the gate in the lead as he did in the relatively small field in the race at Pimlico two weeks ago. If he does, Pretension might be able to hold on the board, though we just aren’t all that sure. Further to his outside, we don’t have a lot to say about #4 Zetterholm (22/1), knowing that he has never really competed against horses at this level before.
The next few horses are all ones that we think have a legitimate shot to win the Preakness Stakes. #5 Went the Day Well (6/1) probably had the third best run of any horse in the Kentucky Derby. He was mired right in the middle of the track with a ton of horses to get around, but in the end, jockey John Velazquez was able to get him all the way up to fourth, just two lengths off of the pace. He is one of the few big closing horses in the field, and with less traffic and a lot better post draw, we think the world of this colt.
#6 Creative Cause (7/1) is just to his outside, and this is a great spot for this horse to be in. There isn’t much talent to his inside, save for Went the Day Well, and we know that the horse directly to his outside is going to be way out in front of him. This is the perfect stalking horse, and it is going to be a colt that is there at the gun. Creative Cause always has his nose in on the final say of the action, and this is a horse that has a heck of a lot of heart to match his speed down the stretch.
The horse that we think should be the odds on favorite though, is #7 Bodemeister (7/4). Bodemeister probably ran one of the best Kentucky Derbies that we have ever seen out of a losing horse, and he is going to be back with vengeance here at Pimlico. Unlike at the Derby, there isn’t all that much speed lining up near Bodemeister, and he should be able to run the pace that he wants instead of being run out of gas by a rabbit. We have seen impressive runs out of this horse at a comparable distance before, and the truth of the matter is if the Kentucky Derby was just 1 3/16 miles and not 1 ¼ miles, we might be talking about a horse going for the second leg of the Triple Crown right here. We would also be talking about a horse that would be something like 1 to 2, and not 8 to 5 on the Preakness Stakes morning lines.
Once we go further outside, there are more horses that we really don’t think much of. It seemed to us as if #8 Daddy Nose Best (14/1) was outclassed at the Kentucky Derby by a ton of horses that were just better than he was. He also has the dubious task of lining up right in between the two Preakness Stakes favorites, and that might come back to put Julien Leparoux in a bad spot to try to manage this horse.
All eyes are going to be on #9 I’ll Have Another (5/2), who is going to look for another strong running at the Preakness Stakes to head to Belmont with a shot at a Triple Crown. We just don’t see it happening, though. I’ll Have Another never really showed those flashes of being a big time closer before the Kentucky Derby, and we don’t know if his close was a product of a true burst from a great horse, or because Bodemeister was just worn out. We will probably see on Saturday though, especially if I’ll Have Another gets back up towards the front of the pack and duels eye to eye with Bodemeister once again.
Rounding out the field are #10 Optimizer (33/1) and #11 Cozzetti (33/1). Neither of these horses really have a shot at winning the Preakness Stakes in our eyes. Optimizer just wasn’t good enough to do anything significant at the Derby, and he has finished outside of the money in all but one of his last seven races. Cozzetti might be a bit of a closing surprise if he gets a cleanrun at it, but we see a lot more negatives than positives out of a colt that has never won as a three-year old.
