Are sportsbooks rooting for Patriots?

There has been a lot of talk about the various NFL future odds tickets that gamblers have on the New York Giants to win the Super Bowl.

 

The Giants were only 19-1 during the preseason but after their loss to the Green Bay Packers that left them 6-6, their fourth straight loss – NFL future odds went up to about 100-1. Even at the start of the playoffs, the Giants had a tough road because of playing three playoff games including an inevitable matchup against the favored Green Bay Packers in Green Bay, that the Giants were 20-1 odds to win the big game.

 

At each stop, sports bettors were taking a chance on the Giants. Some shops got hit with these big future tickets while others only took a few wagers. There is several reported Las Vegas sportsbooks and at least one major offshore sportsbook that will take a heavy loss if the Giants win.

 

Books already took a big hit on MLB future odds when the St. Louis Cardinals were available at 250-1 when they were 10.5 games out. You know how this story ends as the Cards went on to win the World Series and some books took a big hit.

 

The first half of the NFL season was not very good for many of the sportsbooks but several reportedly had a great second half of the NFL regular season.

 

Jay Kornegay, the director of the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook was quoted as saying, “When the Giants lost four games in a row, they gave up almost 50 points to the Saints, they lost to Vince Young and the Eagles. They were right in the middle of a four-game losing streak. They deserved to be 80-1 at that time.”

 

Jimmy Vaccaro of Lucky’s Sports Book says they will not take that big of a hit with a Giants win but has heard that several books will. “At the time the “futures boards” at many Las Vegas casinos listed the Giants anywhere from 70-1 to 100-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.” “People are looking for what they call the value. They want the long shot. They want the lottery ticket.”

 

The odds on Super Bowl XLVI opened at -3.5 and most sportsbooks have the Patriots at -3 with the Mirage being one of the books that have dropped down to 2.5. Most consensus sites are showing a little more bets coming in on the Giants so far to date. It’s said to be about 54/46%.

 

If you read the betting forums or a lot of the NFL experts and analysis from ESPN and other media outlets, many are pointing out that the Giants should be favored in this game. Some contest that Eli Manning is playing as well as anyone and Tom Brady struggles against teams who can pressure the quarterback. New England also one of the worst defenses in football and their secondary is taking a lot of Heat.

 

Is revenge a factor in the Super Bowl? If it was, you would think that could give the Patriots a little edge. Although only seven players (including five starters) remain from the 2007 Super Bowl team that saw the Giants upset them and ruin their historic, perfect season – it’s said to really eat at Brady and Belichick and everyone knows this.

 

The Giants upset the Patriots in week 9 in New England as 9.5 point underdogs. They pressured Brady all day and Eli Manning came up big when it mattered most.

 

As a superstitious bettor, I have to be weary of a public dog like the Giants, the revenge factor and the fact that the Patriots have been playing all season for Myra Kraft, the wife of owner Robert Kraft, who passed away prior to the season from a battle with Cancer.

 

Many are expecting a shootout in this game and the oddsmakers have set the total at the second highest Super Bowl total ever at 55.

 

It will be interesting to see if anything changes during the Super Bowl week itself regarding the public and the betting action on this game. We’ll be watching!

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