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Oct 032012
 

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or a “Norman Einstein,” as Joe Theisman famously said, to understand why NFL betting students might favor a team coming off a week’s rest over one that has far less time to nurse the collective wounds that are part of the struggle that comes with playing professional football. Of course, operators of sportsbooks also know that teams coming off their bye week will have a physical advantage over teams that played the previous weekend, so blindly betting on a team with rest is no sure path to success.

 

In fact, since 1990, when the schedule began granting each team a single weekend of rest, the margin for NFL betting profit is quite narrow. In more than 700 games played, teams coming off a bye week own just 36 more straight up (SU) wins than those teams that played the previous week. And when wagering numbers are added to the equation, the advantage shrinks in half, to a mere plus 18 covers against the spread (ATS) for the rested team. Unfortunately for bettors, that’s not nearly enough to even beat the vigorish.

 

So, clearly, with wagering on a team coming off a bye week being anything but a sure thing, savvy NFL betting practitioners have looked to refine the process by concentrating on specific teams that have a proven history of success in these situations. Let’s take a look at some of them:

 

Denver: Since 1990, the Broncos are 17-6 both SU and ATS following their bye week. Maybe Denver players, because of the thin air in which they play, benefit more from a week’s rest than do players who play in cities at or near sea level. Last year, the Broncos traveled to Miami following their off week, covering their role as a 1-point favorite with an 18-15 victory over the Dolphins. This season, Denver gets a bye after its fifth game on October 15, a Monday night encounter with San Diego. The Broncos then get the Saints in Mile High Stadium, Oct. 28. Denver is 12-3 ATS at home, following a bye week. New Orleans will be coming off a road game at Tampa Bay and will have to fly across the country to Denver. So this could be a good opportunity for bettors.

 

Dallas: The Cowboys are 16-7 SU and a bankroll-boosting 16-7 ATS since 1990 after a week’s rest. Last year, following its bye week, Dallas traveled to New England as a 6 1/2-point underdog to face the Patriots. New England prevailed, 20-16, but the Cowboys beat the spread. Dallas gets its bye week after its fourth game of the season this year, a Monday Night Football game at home versus Chicago, Oct. 1. Then it’s on to Baltimore for a tough game against the Ravens, Oct. 14. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS on the road, following their bye week. The Ravens, meanwhile, will be coming off an Oct. 7 game with the Chiefs in Kansas City, never an easy place for visitors to flourish.

 

Philadelphia: The Eagles are a League-leading best 19-4 SU following a week’s rest and an impressive 16-7 ATS in that situation but are not a wagering play this year. That’s because Philadelphia’s opponent this season, Atlanta, also will be coming off a week of rest at the same time before meeting the Eagles in Philadelphia, Oct. 14. Obviously, it’s important to check the schedule.

 

Arizona: Even with a loss last year following a bye week, the Cardinals are a profitable 14-8 ATS following their week of rest. Arizona gets it bye week late this year, on Nov. 11, following what looks like a difficult game at Green Bay, Nov. 4. The Cardinals are on the road again, Nov. 18, to face the Falcons in Atlanta. Historically, this has been a good spot for Arizona, which has posted a 5-2 record as a road underdog following its bye week.

 

Just as there are teams to bet on when coming off a week’s rest, there also are teams that have failed to capitalize on their bye week, presenting the NFL betting fans with “bet-against” opportunities:

 

Seattle: The Seahawks are an NFL-worst 5-17-1 ATS following their bye week, including a push against the Browns in Cleveland last season. Seattle’s bye comes late this year, after the 10th weekend of the season, when the Seahawks play the Jets at home, Nov. 11. The team then flies across the country to face the Dolphins in Miami, Nov. 25. Going back more than two decades, Seattle is 4-10 ATS on the road following a week of rest.

 

Oakland: The Raiders are 9-14 ATS following a week of rest, including a 38-24 outright loss to the Broncos in Oakland last year when the Silver and Black were 7-point favorites. Oakland’s bye comes in week 5 this season, after a trip to Denver, Sept. 30. The team then travels to Atlanta, Oct. 14. The Raiders are 4-5 as a road underdog off a week’s rest so it could be worse.

 

Every team gains a physical benefit from a week’s rest but savvy NFL betting enthusiasts understand that each game and each situation brings its own pointspread challenges and only through careful, in-depth analysis can the chances for success be maximized.

Oct 022012
 

The NFL is through week 5 and only the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are undefeated at 4-0. Here is updated betting odds to win the Super Bowl

Super Bowl XLVII   -   10/4/2012 8:25 PM (EST)
Houston Texans +465
San Francisco 49ers +600
New England Patriots +700
Atlanta Falcons +750
Green Bay Packers +800
Baltimore Ravens +950
Philadelphia Eagles +1900
San Diego Chargers +2000
Chicago Bears +2200
New York Giants +2500
Denver Broncos +2700
Arizona Cardinals +3000
Pittsburgh Steelers +3300
Dallas Cowboys +4000
Cincinnati Bengals +5500
Minnesota Vikings +7000
New York Jets +10000
Seattle Seahawks +10000
New Orleans Saints +12500
Detroit Lions +12500
Washington Redskins +12500
Buffalo Bills +13500
Carolina Panthers +25000
Kansas City Chiefs +30000
St Louis Rams +33000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +35000
Miami Dolphins +40000
Indianapolis Colts +50000
Tennessee Titans +50000
Oakland Raiders +60000
Jacksonville Jaguars +75000
Cleveland Browns +100000
Sep 302012
 
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001) Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
Atlanta leads 15-7 New England leads 20-2
11-Dec-11 CAR 23, ATL 31 1-Jan-12 NE 49, BUF 21
16-Oct-11 CAR 17, @ATL 31 25-Sep-11 NE 31, @BUF 34
2-Jan-11 CAR 10, @ATL 31 26-Dec-10 NE 34, @BUF 3
12-Dec-10 CAR 10, ATL 31 26-Sep-10 NE 38, BUF 30
15-Nov-09 CAR 28, ATL 19 20-Dec-09 NE 17, @BUF 10
20-Sep-09 CAR 20, @ATL 28 14-Sep-09 NE 25, BUF 24
23-Nov-08 CAR 28, @ATL 45 28-Dec-08 NE 13, @BUF 0
28-Sep-08 CAR 24, ATL 9 9-Nov-08 NE 20, BUF 10
11-Nov-07 CAR 13, ATL 20 18-Nov-07 NE 56, @BUF 10
23-Sep-07 CAR 27, @ATL 20 23-Sep-07 NE 38, BUF 7
24-Dec-06 CAR 10, @ATL 3 22-Oct-06 NE 28, @BUF 6
10-Sep-06 CAR 6, ATL 20 10-Sep-06 NE 19, BUF 17
1-Jan-06 CAR 44, @ATL 11 11-Dec-05 NE 35, @BUF 7
4-Dec-05 CAR 24, ATL 6 30-Oct-05 NE 21, BUF 16
18-Dec-04 CAR 31, @ATL 34 14-Nov-04 NE 29, BUF 6
3-Oct-04 CAR 10, ATL 27 3-Oct-04 NE 31, @BUF 17
7-Dec-03 CAR 14, @ATL 20 27-Dec-03 NE 31, BUF 0
28-Sep-03 CAR 23, ATL 3 7-Sep-03 NE 0, @BUF 31
24-Nov-02 CAR 0, ATL 41 8-Dec-02 NE 27, BUF 17
20-Oct-02 CAR 0, @ATL 30 3-Nov-02 NE 38, @BUF 7
25-Nov-01 CAR 7, ATL 10 16-Dec-01 NE 12, @BUF 9
23-Sep-01 CAR 16, @ATL 24 11-Nov-01 NE 21, BUF 11
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
San Diego leads 12-10 Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
31-Oct-11 SD 20, @KC 23
25-Sep-11 SD 20, KC 17 Seattle leads 15-6
12-Dec-10 SD 31, KC 0 12-Dec-11 SEA 30, STL 13
13-Sep-10 SD 14, @KC 21 20-Nov-11 SEA 24, @STL 7
29-Nov-09 SD 43, KC 14 2-Jan-11 SEA 16, STL 6
25-Oct-09 SD 37, @KC 7 3-Oct-10 SEA 3, @STL 20
14-Dec-08 SD 22, @KC 21 29-Nov-09 SEA 27, @STL 17
9-Nov-08 SD 20, KC 19 13-Sep-09 SEA 28, STL 0
2-Dec-07 SD 24, @KC 10 14-Dec-08 SEA 23, @STL 20
30-Sep-07 SD 16, KC 30 21-Sep-08 SEA 37, STL 13
17-Dec-06 SD 20, KC 9 25-Nov-07 SEA 24, @STL 19
22-Oct-06 SD 27, @KC 30 21-Oct-07 SEA 33, STL 6
24-Dec-05 SD 7, @KC 20 12-Nov-06 SEA 24, STL 22
30-Oct-05 SD 28, KC 20 15-Oct-06 SEA 30, @STL 28
2-Jan-05 SD 24, KC 17 13-Nov-05 SEA 31, STL 16
28-Nov-04 SD 34, @KC 31 9-Oct-05 SEA 37, @STL 31
30-Nov-03 SD 24, KC 28 8-Jan-05 SEA 20, STL 27
7-Sep-03 SD 14, @KC 27 14-Nov-04 SEA 12, @STL 23
22-Dec-02 SD 22, @KC 24 10-Oct-04 SEA 27, STL 33
13-Oct-02 SD 35, KC 34 14-Dec-03 SEA 22, @STL 27
23-Dec-01 SD 17, @KC 20 21-Sep-03 SEA 24, STL 23
4-Nov-01 SD 20, KC 25 22-Dec-02 SEA 30, STL 10
20-Oct-02 SEA 20, @STL 37
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001) Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
Tennessee leads 14-6 Denver leads 12-10
1-Jan-12 TEN 23, @HOU 22 6-Nov-11 OAK 24, DEN 38
23-Oct-11 TEN 7, HOU 41 12-Sep-11 OAK 23, @DEN 20
19-Dec-10 TEN 31, HOU 17 19-Dec-10 OAK 39, DEN 23
28-Nov-10 TEN 0, @HOU 20 24-Oct-10 OAK 59, @DEN 14
23-Nov-09 TEN 20, @HOU 17 20-Dec-09 OAK 20, @DEN 19
20-Sep-09 TEN 31, HOU 34 27-Sep-09 OAK 3, DEN 23
14-Dec-08 TEN 12, @HOU 13 23-Nov-08 OAK 31, @DEN 10
21-Sep-08 TEN 31, HOU 12 8-Sep-08 OAK 14, DEN 41
2-Dec-07 TEN 28, HOU 20 2-Dec-07 OAK 34, DEN 20
21-Oct-07 TEN 38, @HOU 36 16-Sep-07 OAK 20, @DEN 23
10-Dec-06 TEN 26, @HOU 20 12-Nov-06 OAK 13, DEN 17
29-Oct-06 TEN 28, HOU 22 15-Oct-06 OAK 3, @DEN 13
11-Dec-05 TEN 13, HOU 10 24-Dec-05 OAK 3, @DEN 22
9-Oct-05 TEN 34, @HOU 20 13-Nov-05 OAK 17, DEN 31
28-Nov-04 TEN 21, @HOU 31 28-Nov-04 OAK 25, @DEN 24
17-Oct-04 TEN 10, HOU 20 17-Oct-04 OAK 3, DEN 31
21-Dec-03 TEN 27, @HOU 24 30-Nov-03 OAK 8, DEN 22
12-Oct-03 TEN 38, HOU 17 22-Sep-03 OAK 10, @DEN 31
29-Dec-02 TEN 13, @HOU 3 22-Dec-02 OAK 28, DEN 16
10-Nov-02 TEN 17, HOU 10 11-Nov-02 OAK 34, @DEN 10
30-Dec-01 OAK 17, @DEN 23
5-Nov-01 OAK 38, DEN 28
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001) Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
Philadelphia leads 16-8 Minnesota leads 17-5
20-Nov-11 NYG 10, PHI 17 11-Dec-11 MIN 28, @DET 34
25-Sep-11 NYG 29, @PHI 16 25-Sep-11 MIN 23, DET 26
19-Dec-10 NYG 31, PHI 38 2-Jan-11 MIN 13, @DET 20
21-Nov-10 NYG 17, @PHI 27 26-Sep-10 MIN 24, DET 10
13-Dec-09 NYG 38, PHI 45 15-Nov-09 MIN 27, DET 10
1-Nov-09 NYG 17, @PHI 40 20-Sep-09 MIN 27, @DET 13
11-Jan-09 NYG 11, PHI 23 7-Dec-08 MIN 20, @DET 16
7-Dec-08 NYG 14, PHI 20 12-Oct-08 MIN 12, DET 10
9-Nov-08 NYG 36, @PHI 31 2-Dec-07 MIN 42, DET 10
9-Dec-07 NYG 16, @PHI 13 16-Sep-07 MIN 17, @DET 20
30-Sep-07 NYG 16, PHI 3 10-Dec-06 MIN 30, @DET 20
7-Jan-07 NYG 20, @PHI 23 8-Oct-06 MIN 26, DET 17
17-Dec-06 NYG 22, PHI 36 4-Dec-05 MIN 21, @DET 16
17-Sep-06 NYG 30, @PHI 24 6-Nov-05 MIN 27, DET 14
11-Dec-05 NYG 26, @PHI 23 19-Dec-04 MIN 28, @DET 27
20-Nov-05 NYG 27, PHI 17 21-Nov-04 MIN 22, DET 19
28-Nov-04 NYG 6, PHI 27 23-Nov-03 MIN 24, DET 14
12-Sep-04 NYG 17, @PHI 31 21-Sep-03 MIN 23, @DET 13
16-Nov-03 NYG 10, @PHI 28 29-Dec-02 MIN 38, @DET 36
19-Oct-03 NYG 10, PHI 14 13-Oct-02 MIN 31, DET 24
28-Dec-02 NYG 10, PHI 7 16-Dec-01 MIN 24, @DET 27
28-Oct-02 NYG 3, @PHI 17 14-Oct-01 MIN 31, DET 26
30-Dec-01 NYG 21, @PHI 24
22-Oct-01 NYG 9, PHI 10
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001) Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
San Francisco leads 2-1 Tampa Bay leads 5-3
7-Dec-08 SF 24, NYJ 14 12-Dec-10 WSH 16, TB 17
17-Oct-04 SF 14, @NYJ 22 4-Oct-09 WSH 16, TB 13
1-Oct-01 SF 19, @NYJ 17 25-Nov-07 WSH 13, @TB 19
19-Nov-06 WSH 17, @TB 20
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001) 7-Jan-06 WSH 17, @TB 10
13-Nov-05 WSH 35, @TB 36
Arizona leads 2-0 12-Sep-04 WSH 16, TB 10
14-Sep-08 MIA 10, @ARI 31 12-Oct-03 WSH 13, TB 35
7-Nov-04 MIA 23, ARI 24
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
Dallas leads 2-1
Jacksonville leads 4-2 19-Sep-10 CHI 27, @DAL 20
9-Oct-11 CIN 30, @JAC 20 23-Sep-07 CHI 10, DAL 34
2-Nov-08 CIN 21, JAC 19 25-Nov-04 CHI 7, @DAL 21
9-Oct-05 CIN 20, @JAC 23
15-Dec-02 CIN 15, JAC 29
9-Dec-01 CIN 10, JAC 14
11-Nov-01 CIN 13, @JAC 30
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
New Orleans leads 3-2
8-Sep-11 NO 34, @GB 42
24-Nov-08 NO 51, GB 29
17-Sep-06 NO 34, @GB 27
9-Oct-05 NO 3, @GB 52
15-Sep-02 NO 35, GB 20

 

Sep 292012
 

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For more information visit the FanDuel thread in the NFL forums.

Sep 042012
 
Odds to win 2013 Super Bowl XLVII
Green Bay Packers  +500
New England Patriots  +500
San Francisco 49ers  +900
Houston Texans  +1000
Philadelphia Eagles  +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers  +1450
Denver Broncos  +1550
Baltimore Ravens  +1650
New Orleans Saints  +1650
New York Giants  +1800
Dallas Cowboys  +2000
Detroit Lions  +2050
Chicago Bears  +2200
Atlanta Falcons  +2550
San Diego Chargers  +2850
New York Jets  +3050
Cincinnati Bengals  +4050
Arizona Cardinals  +4500
Buffalo Bills  +5000
Kansas City Chiefs  +5000
Seattle Seahawks  +5050
Carolina Panthers  +5250
Miami Dolphins  +5500
Tennessee Titans  +6050
Washington Redskins  +6050
Oakland Raiders  +7500
St Louis Rams  +8550
Minnesota Vikings  +12000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers  +12500
Cleveland Browns  +15000
Indianapolis Colts  +15000
Jacksonville Jaguars  +20000
Jul 232012
 

The NFC South is one of the big unknown divisions for the 2012 season. A few of the key questions are how is the New Orleans Saints going to respond to the bounty gate scandal? Can they survive without their head coach Sean Payton? Can Drew Brees duplicate the incredible season he had in 2011? Can the defense sustain with the loss of Greg Williams and Jonathan Vilma? Can Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Hawks take the next step? What about Cam Newton? Is he ready to start delivering wins and not just stats? The Bucs might have the biggest change over this season but this is a rebuilding year for Greg Schiano and Tampa.

This year, the favorites on the odds to win the NFC South are the Atlanta Falcons at +114. We find it a bit odd that the Falcons are nearly the odds on favorites to win this division, though we do know that they have a lot of talent behind QB Matt Ryan. WR Roddy White and WR Julio Jones were both awesome last year, and they are going to be one of the most feared tandems in the league once again this year now that they have worked together for a full campaign. Defensively, there are still issues to work out, but those issues are there for the rest of this division as well.

Updated Betting odds to win NFC South
Atlanta Falcons +105
New Orleans Saints +105
Carolina Panthers +550
Tampa Bucs +1200

Jul 182012
 

The Green Bay Packers are the heavy favorites to once again win the NFC North but don’t tell both the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions this who both believe they have a fair chance to win the division this year.

Are the Packers worthy of being -280 favorites to come out on top of this group of four? QB Aaron Rodgers is as good as any signal caller in the league, and he has all of the weapons in the world, but this defense just wasn’t all that good at times and often allowed 30+ points. The running game still doesn’t cut it either, and in the end, this is a team that, in spite of its remarkable start to the season, really is flawed. The Packers are great, but they aren’t necessarily this great.

Green Bay Packers -280
Detroit Lions +510
Chicago Bears +570
Minnesota Vikings +3250

Jul 142012
 

The NFC East is one of the most polarizing divisions in all of football. Always filled with lots of hype, you just never quite know what will happen in a year of the NFC East. The Washington Redskins got their quarterback of the future when Robert Griffin III was drafted second overall but the general consensus is it’s a three team race in the East this year between the always hyped Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys and the defending champion New York Giants who come in to 2012 season, second to the Eagles when it comes to favorites in betting odds to take home of the division.

The Eagles were the “Dream Team” last year, but they faltered at times and just never really got on track. This year though, matters are a lot different. QB Michael Vick almost has to rebound from what amounted to be nowhere near that special of a season in 2011, and his offense really started to click at the end of the campaign last year. Head Coach Andy Reid knows that he has just one more shot to try to salvage this team and get it to a Super Bowl, and this might be the year that it happens. Remember that Philly is now playing a third place schedule, and that might make all the difference as well.

Philadelphia Eagles +140
New York Giants +205
Dallas Cowboys +265
Washington Redskins +1120

Jul 122012
 

The AFC West is the wildcard division and it all starts with the Broncos. Are the Broncos going to look like the old Colts? This division could be a very competitive division with possibly all four teams playing .500 or better.

The favorites at +165 are the Denver Broncos, and for good reason. Last year, they were able to get into the playoffs as the AFC West winners on the back of QB Tim Tebow. Tebow was largely just a running quarterback who happened to get a few throws off every now and again that didn’t look like ducks. Now, QB Peyton Manning is running the show, and he hopes to take the form that he had two years ago before his neck injury with the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have done everything that they can to build around Manning quickly, bringing in TEs Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme. This could be a great year for the likes of WR Eric Decker and WR Demaryius Thomas, both of which could flourish with Manning calling the shots and running his patented offense.

AFC West Odds

Denver +165
San Diego +175
Kansas City +375
Oakland +540