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Jul 042012
 
 

The AFC North could be a very competitive division this year. Oddsmakers have the Ravens as overall favorites but the Pittsburgh Steelers are right behind them and look out for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Bookmaker Sportsbook is paying attention to the Cincinnati Bengals by making them the +385 third choices on the board in the AFC North. The Bengals really came out of nowhere last year from where we were sitting to make it to the postseason with basically an entirely new roster. QB Andy Dalton was never all that special, but he was a good game manager, a la Flacco in Baltimore, and second year OC Jay Gruden is quickly becoming one of the most coveted young coaches in the league. Cincy plays good defense, but there is definitely a void of stars to watch out for.

AFC North Odds

Baltimore Ravens +133
Pittsburgh Steelers +137
Cincinnati Bengals +385
Cleveland Browns +3300

 

Jan 222012
 
 

The oddsmakers have held the Patriots minus 7 for most of the day but the total has now dropped to 48 just before kickoff at Bookmaker.eu after sitting at 50 and 50.5 most of the week.

Action on the side continues to favor the Patriots although the line has remained the same.

In the later game, Bookmaker has the 49ers -2 with the total at 40.5.

 

Jan 222012
 
 

I wanted to update a few of the odds available for the AFC Championship game. New England is holding steady as a favorite touchdown over Baltimore at Bookmaker.eu. The total is sitting at 50.

Bookmaker offers an assortment of prop bets for the big game. We’ll look at a few.

1st HALF

Baltimore +4EV

New England -4 -120

Team to Score First

Baltimore +120

New England +150

Will there be a score in 1st 7:30 minutes of game?

Bal/NE YES -240

Bal/NE NO +190

Will the first score be a td or a non td?

TD -200

FG or SAFETY +160

Team to score first wins?

Yes -165

No +135

Will either team score 3 unanswered times?

Yes -225

No +185

Will there be a score in last 2 minutes of first half?

Yes -300

No +240

more props available at Bookmaker.eu

 

Another online book who offers as many betting props as anyone is 5Dimes Sports and Casino. Here is a small sample.

1001   BAL scores first       +140

1002   NE scores first        -160

 

1003   BAL scores last        +115

1004   NE scores last         -135

 

1005   BAL scores last 1st half           -105

1006   NE scores last 1st half            -125

1007   First score a TD       -175

1008   First score not a TD         +155

 

1009   Last score a TD        -190

1010   Last score not a TD          +165

 

1011   BAL first score a TD         -175

1012   BAL first score not a TD           +155

1013   NE first score a TD          -195

1014   NE first score not a TD            +168

1015   BAL last score a TD          -190

1016   BAL last score not a TD            +165

1017   NE last score a TD           -190

1018   NE last score not a TD       +165

 

1019   Score in first 7:30          -240

1020   No score in first 7:30       +200

 

1021   Score in first 7:00          -205

1022   No score in first 7:00       +173

1023   Score in first 6:00          -110

1024   No score in first 6:00       -120

1025   Score in first 3:30          +255

1026   No score in first 3:30       -365

1027   Score in first 1:00          +1400

1028   No score in first 1:00       -3600

1029   Either team 3 straight scores            -225

1030   No team 3 straight scores          +185

 

1031   Team to score first wins game            -180

1032   Team to score first loses game           +158

 

1033   Game goes to overtime        +1000

1034   No overtime            -1500

 

more props available at 5Dimes

Jan 202012
 
 

No Super Bowl winner has won less than 10 regular season games (Giants).

The Patriots won 13 regular season games, none against a team with a winning record. New England had second easiest schedule in NFL.

Tom Brady is 9-2 at home in the playoffs in his career.

Baltimore is 9-0 this year when Ray Rice gets 20 or more carries.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 6 games this year against teams with a winning record.

New England has gone over the total in 8 of the last 9 games.

New England has won 9 games in a row. Baltimore has won 8 of last 10.

New England is first in total offense in the AFC. Baltimore is 3rd in total defense in the AFC.

Although Tom Brady is 4-1 in AFC Championship games, Brady has only a 83.7 passer rating in these games on 91 of 143 for 1000 yards with 6 tds and 5 picks.

Since getting blown out by the Saints on the road, the Giants have beaten the Cowboys, Jets and Packers on the road.

The Patriots are 15-4 all-time against the AFC North in the regular season since the division was formed in 2002.

The only AFC North losses for New England are against the Steelers (three) and Browns (one). New England is 1-1 against the AFC North in the postseason with a 2004 AFC Championship Game win at Pittsburgh and a 2009 loss at home to Baltimore.

The majority of TV experts are predicting a Patriots/Giants Super Bowl.

 

A LOOK AROUND THE WEB ON RAVENS AT PATRIOTS

Andy Benoit says the Patriots’ offense is the best the Ravens have seen all season, but Ray Lewis’ defense is the best the Patriots have seen as well.

Harbaugh is 5-3 in the playoffs, with each of his losses to the AFC’s Super Bowl representative that season. That’s not bad. But it’s not his goal or the goal of his football team. Making it to the Super Bowl is, and last time I checked, Harbaugh was waiting on his first trip there with the Ravens.

Pete Prisco says Ray Rice might be key for the Ravens, but they have to make some plays down the field, and Joe Flacco will – it just won’t be enough.

Mike Freeman says the Patriots have the easiest rode to the Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick era, maybe the easiest road of any potential Super Bowl champion in years.

Ryan Wilson says in order for the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl, the defense will have to have its best game against Brady. Offensively, Joe Flacco will need to step up and avoid silly mistakes.

Will Brinson says the Patriots are a shockingly high favorite in this game and are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick believes S Ed Reed is one of the best safeties to ever play. The feelings are mutual from Reed to New England’s offense. “You have to keep your eyes on all of them,” Reed said. “They’ve got a bunch of weapons and we know that.”

OC Cam Cameron doesn’t believe the notion that QB Joe Flacco needs to match Tom Brady throw for throw in Sunday’s AFC Championship. “We’re not going out there trying to outperform the other QB,” Cameron said. “We’re trying to play to the way the defense is playing us.”

The Patriots know they have to do a better job against Ravens DT Haloti Ngata, who had two sacks in the 2010 regular-season matchup between the two teams.

For the second consecutive day, S Ed Reed (ankle) is the only player listed on the injury report. Reed was limited in Thursday’s practice. Reed is expected to play after rolling his ankle at the end of Baltimore’s 20-13 divisional round win over Houston.

“I just missed practice, that’s all,” Brady said. “Not much more than that, really. We’re facing a great team, great challenges — certainly the best team we’ve faced all year. Everyone needs to be at full strength, though. It’s going to be a very physical, tough, hard-nosed game. We need everyone at full strength.”

John Clayton says, For the Ravens to win, they must clean up several things. If not, the Patriots will be heading to their fifth Super Bowl with Tom Brady at quarterback.

Jamison Hensley: As we’ve seen so far in the playoffs, home field has really been an advantage. Only one home team (Green Bay) has lost so far this postseason.

A LOOK AROUND ON THE WEB ON GIANTS AT 49ERS

We are not going to be denied,” safety Antrel Rolle said. “We are not going to be denied at this point. We understand what we have as a team. It’s not all talent, it’s about chemistry and we are jelling at this point. Coaches and players being on the same page at the same time. We have one mind, to win a championship.”

Andy Benoit says the 49ers may have made believers out of some with their old school style back in Week 10, but the Giants hadn’t gelled on the O-line and were without Ahmad Bradshaw.

Pete Prisco says Frank Gore will have to get the running game going for the 49ers, but the Giants are following the same formula they did when they won it all in 2007.

Ryan Wilson says it took almost seven years, but Alex Smith is finally playing like a first-round draft pick and needs to sustain his success.

New York isn’t playing like the 2007 version of themselves; they’re playing like last season’s Super Bowl champs.

The Giants and 49ers met six times in the playoffs from the 1981 to 1993 seasons. Four times the victor won the Super Bowl.

Is Las Vegas hoping for a 49ers win?

The Giants are the best team remaining, with a high-powered offense to go with a staunch defense.

Jan 192012
 
 

Three more days until the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots get it on in the AFC Championship. Usually these games bring out trash talk between each other but it’s been fairly quiet on that end. In fact, both teams have been complimentary of each other. However there has been some back and forth talk between the Ravens offense and defense. Joe Flacco is under enormous pressure to have a big game in this kind of spotlight. Could this be Ray Lewis and Ed Reed last game?

 

The home team has won and covered 3 straight AFC Championship games. The home team has actually won 5 straight but only covered 4 of them. The over has cashed 3 straight and 6 of the last 7 times.

 

2010-11 – Pittsburgh -4, 38
Pittsburgh 24 NY Jets 19
Favorite & over

 

2009-10 – Indianapolis -8, 40

Indianapolis 30 NY Jets 17

Favorite & over

 

2008-09 – Pittsburgh -6, 35

Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 14

Favorite & over

 

2007-08 – New England -14, 48

New England 21 San Diego 12

Dog & under

 

2006-07 – Indianapolis -3.5, 47

Indianapolis 38 New England 34

Favorite & over

 

This is the first AFC Championship game for the Patriots since the 2007-08 season when they were 19-9 heading in to the infamous Super Bowl loss to the NY Giants.

 

Since 2000 the New England Patriots have appeared in 5 AFC Championship games.

 

This is the highest over/under in the AFC Championship game since the 1998-99 season when the total was 51.5 between the Jets and Broncos. The Broncos won that game 23-10 and the game easily went under the total. In the 2007-08 season, the total was 48 between the Chargers and Patriots. That game also went easily under the total ending with a 21-12 Pats win.

 

The Ravens are 1-1 in AFC Championship games. In 2000, they won on the road in Oakland and losing in Pittsburgh in 2008.

 

The Patriots are 6-1 in AFC Championship games which includes 4-1 on Brady/Belichick watch.

 

Baltimore is 0-6 against the Patriots in the regular season but in 2009, the Ravens upset the Patriots on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

 

New England is currently on a 9 game winning streak and have scored 31 or more points in 8 of the 9.

 

Bill Belichick is 16-6 all-time in the post season.

AFC Championship History
Year  Matchup  Score  Line ATS
2010-11 N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh 24-19 4, 38 Favorite, Over
2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis 30-17 8, 40 Favorite, Over
2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh 23-14 6, 35 Favorite, Over
2007-08 San Diego at New England 21-12 14, 48 Underdog, Under
2006-07 New England at Indianapolis 38-34 3.5, 47 Favorite-Over
2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver 34-17 3, 41 Underdog-Over
2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh 41-27 3, 35 Favorite, Over
2003-04 Indianapolis at New England 24-14 3, 43 Favorite, Under
2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland 41-24 8, 47 Favorite-Over
2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh 24-17 10, 37 Underdog, Over
2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland 16-3 6, 36.5 Underdog, Under
1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville 33-14 7, 40.5 Underdog, Over
1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver 23-10 9, 51.5 Favorite, Under
1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh 24-21 2.5, 41 Favorite, Over
1996-97 Jacksonville at New England 20-6 7, 44 Favorite, Under
1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh 20-16 12, 41 Underdog, Under
1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh 17-13 9, 35 Underdog, Under
1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo 30-13 3, 38 Favorite, Under
1992-93 Buffalo at Miami 29-10 2, 41 Favorite, Under
1991-92 Denver at Buffalo 10-7 11, 45 Underdog, Under
1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo 51-3 7, 37 Favorite, Over
1989-90 Cleveland at Denver 37-21 3.5, 40 Favorite, Over
1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati 21-10 4, 40.5 Favorite, Under
1987-88 Cleveland at Denver 38-33 2.5, 44.5 Favorite, Over
1986-87 Denver at Cleveland 23-20 3, 38 Underdog, Over
1985-86 New England at Miami 31-14 5.5 Underdog
1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami 45-28 9.5 Favorite
1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders 30-14 7.5 Favorite
1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami 14-0 2 Favorite
1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati 27-7 4.5 Favorite
1980-81 Oakland at San Diego 34-27 4 Underdog
1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh 27-13 9.5 Favorite
1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh 34-5 7 Favorite
1977-78 Oakland at Denver 20-17 3.5 Underdog
1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-7 4.5 Underdog
1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh 16-10 6 PUSH
1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-13 5.5 Underdog
1973-74 Oakland at Miami 27-10 6.5 Favorite
1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh 21-17 2.5 Favorite
1971-72 Baltimore at Miami 21-0 1.5 Favorite
1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore 27-17 1 Underdog
ATS Records Over/Under Records
W/L ATS Home Away Grass Turf O/U Home Away Grass Turf Avg.
Baltimore 12-4 8-7-1 8-0 4-4 2-3 10-1 Baltimore 8-6-2 4-4 4-2-2 2-2-1 6-4-1 40.4
New England 13-3 8-7-1 7-1 6-2 5-1 8-2 New England 11-5 5-3 6-2 4-2 7-3 50.2
Jan 182012
 
 

Baltimore has been somewhat of an under the radar team although many NFL experts have predicted the Ravens to be a serious contender this year. Every time we would be ready to put the Ravens in the top class they would lay a stinker on the road against a far inferior team.

 

The Ravens started off 4-1 heading in to a divisional road game against a struggling Jaguars team. Flacco only threw for 137 yards and Ray Rice only rushed for 28 on Monday Night Football. The result was a Jacksonville 12-7 win. Baltimore was a 10 point favorite in this game.

 

Baltimore went on to win the next two games to bring their record to 6-2 with a big win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Flacco threw for 300 and the Ravens were looking good, playing confident and they had a trip to Seattle up next. Again another mediocre performance from Flacco (255) and Rice (43) and the Ravens lost outright as a 6.5 point favorite by a score of 22-17.

 

The Ravens were 6-3 at the time and whispers were beginning that Flacco couldn’t take them anywhere, they were soft and can’t win on the road – something they may have needed to do in the playoffs.

 

Baltimore than reeled off four straight wins including a prime time win against his brother and the San Francisco 49ers. The Ravens were now sitting at 10-3 with a road game in San Diego lingering. At the time this was being billed as a huge game for the Ravens chances of winning the division and getting a home game (or even a bye). Another failed result. The Chargers held Rice to 57 yards on way to a 34-14 blowout win.

 

The Ravens had two games left within the division and were getting some help by the Steelers leaving them opportunity for success. They defeated Cleveland at home 20-14 with one game left in Cincinnati. This was a big game to both teams. The Ravens were in the playoffs win or lose but a win could get them a bye week, a home game in the divisional round and avoiding the Patriots until the AFC Championship. Cincinnati was there to play. A win and they were finally back in the playoffs. At the time, a loss was thought to be out because of all the scenarios. Baltimore came in to the game and really set the tone early. Ray Rice went for 191 on the ground and the Ravens finally won on the road 24-16.

 

This past week at home, Baltimore got all they could handle from the Houston Texans but the Ravens made plays and came away with a 20-13 win, failing to cover the 7.5 point spread. It should be noted that Houston was down to a 3rd string quarterback and Andre Johnson was not 100%.

 

So now the Ravens will get their biggest test on the road yet against machine like Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Pats are favored by 7.5 points at Bookmaker.eu, with odds creeping towards -9. The total set at 50.5.

 

What to make of the New England Patriots? In some respects the Patriots came in to the playoffs a little underrated. Most were talking about their terrible defense which was one of the worst in the league. Saying that, the Patriots went 13-3, secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs and Tom Brady may have won MVP in most years where Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees didn’t go off.

 

The Patriots were 7-1 at home this year with their only loss coming early in November to the New York Giants by a score of 24-20. New England was a 9.5 point favorite. Eli Manning passed for 2 TDs and 250 yards while Brandon Jacobs rushed for 72 yards and Victor Cruz and added 91 receiving yards.

 

Tom Brady and the double tight ends with Wes Welker in the slot has caused major problems. Since losing to the Giants and two in a row, the Pats have scored 37, 34, 38, 31, 34, 41, 27, 49 and now 45 in the opening round of the playoffs against a completely overmatched Denver Broncos team. So are the Pats battle tested?

 

Most of the teams they have killed are bottom of the barrel teams (Buffalo, Denver twice, Washington, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Kansas City and the New York Jets). Only Denver made the playoffs.

 

New England doesn’t run the ball often and won’t be surprised if Brady throws 50 times in this game considering the Ravens are the number 1 rushing defense and 3rd in total defense in the AFC. But can you count out Tom Brady? The Patriots were the number 1 passing offense and number 1 total offense in the AFC.

 

Tom Brady and the Patriots have lost three straight playoff games. This game is big to Tom personally and the entire Patriots staff understands the significance of the chance to get to the Super Bowl and somehow avoid a New Orleans or New England.

 

The Ravens will probably cover this game (maybe backdoor or early lead) as I can’t lay 9 points but I like the Patriots to win and advance and I think points will be scored. I’ll go over the total of 50.5 with a small parlay with Patriots moneyline.

 

This should be a great game!

Jan 162012
 
 

A lot of football experts assumed either the Green Bay Packers or the New Orleans Saints would be representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLVI but instead either the 49ers or Giants will play for the title. Sportsbooks are said to be hoping for anything but a New York Giants win due to some earlier 100-1 odds.

According to Bovada.lv, New England is 6/5 odds to win the Super Bowl followed by San Francisco and New York at 3/1 and Baltimore at 6/1.

The AFC Championship has the Patriots as 7.5 point favorites over the Ravens while the 49ers are 2.5 favorites over the Giants in the NFC Championship.

Jan 162012
 
 

The Championship games are set and oddsmakers have opened the odds on the championships set for Sunday, January 22, 2012.

 

The AFC Championship will start the day at 3:30PM. New England is favored by 7.5 +100 over the Baltimore Ravens. The total is 50.5 and you can find money lines of Baltimore +275 and New England -335.

 

New England’s rode to the AFC Championship was the easiest of them all, thrashing Tim Tebow and the Broncos by a score of 45-10, easily covering the 13.5 spread. The game went over the total of 52.

 

Baltimore got here by playing a complete game but they had to fight in their 20-13 win over the Houston Texans. The Ravens failed to cover the 7.5 point spread and the game stayed under the total.

 

In the NFC, both the high flying Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints are gone due to some impressive games by the 49ers and Giants.

 

The Giants defeated the Falcons in the wildcard round 27-2, covering the 3 point spread (under) and in their most impressive game of the year, they shocked the defending Super Bowl champion Packers 37-20 at Lambeau field. The Giants were a 7 point underdog and the game easily went over.

 

In the early game, the San Francisco 49ers were dominant defensively early but it was Alex Smith and the 49ers offense that won this thriller of a game, defeating the Saints 36-32, winning outright as a 3.5 point dog and the game went over the total.

 

The winner of the AFC/NFC Championship will play in Indianapolis in two weeks from Sunday.

Jan 152012
 
 

NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds Update for Sunday, January 15th

 

Bookmaker.eu

Houston Texans +7.5, o36.5, +280

Baltimore Ravens -7.5, u36.5, -330

 

5Dimes

Houston Texans +9 -135, o36.5, +290

Baltimore Ravens -9 +115, u36.5, -350

 

Bovada.lv

Houston Texans +9 -130, o36.5

Baltimore Ravens -9 +110, u36.5

 

Consensus Public Betting

Houston Texans – 31%

Baltimore Ravens – 69%

 

Over/Under Trends

HOU is 5-1 to the UNDER l6 Jan. games
HOU is 13-6 to the OVER L19 games as an underdog
BAL is 19-7 to the UNDER L26 games vs. AFC South
BAL is 11-6 to the UNDER L17 games after two or more consecutive losses

ATS Trends

HOU is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. BAL
HOU is 4-1 ATS L5 games vs. AFC North
HOU is 8-4 ATS L12 games revenging a loss against opponent
HOU is 6-1 ATS L7 games when playing against a team with a winning record
BAL is 1-4 ATS L5 home games as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
BAL is 2-5 ATS L7 games vs. AFC South
BAL is 3-0 ATS L3 games after a bye week
BAL is 5-0 ATS L5 games when playing against a team with a winning record

Jan 142012
 
 

Despite their opposite reputations as an offensive threat (Houston) and defensive powerhouse (Baltimore), the Texans and Ravens are pretty similar teams when the numbers are compared. Both ranked middle-of-the-road on offense and rely strongly on their running backs, while the two clubs were stingy in allowing yards and points, ranking right next to one another in both categories. The deciding factors in this game should be experience and home field. The Ravens excel playing in Baltimore and already own a home win over the Texans. On top of that, key members like Flacco, Rice and Reed are all playoff-tested, while Lewis is a former Super Bowl MVP.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 21, Texans 13
Current Odds: Baltimore -7.5

Houston: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS
Baltimore: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS

Houston most recently:
When playing in January are 3-3
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games