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NBA Future Odds To Win Updated

 Betting Odds, NBA Betting
Feb 262012
 
 

The NBA is at the all-star break and for the next week(s), Dwight Howard will dominate the talk shows as the Orlando Magic will need to decide whether it makes more sense to try and move Howard for the best pieces they can get in return before the trade deadline or try to add some pieces around Howard, don’t trade him and just hope he won’t leave as a free agent. The latter is a bit unlikely and Howard will most likely be moved. Look for the Lakers to try and make one last push.

With or without Howard in Orlando, the oddsmakers have updated betting odds for the NBA future odds including odds to win the Eastern Conference, odds to win the Western Conference and odds to win NBA Championship. We also show updated odds on the Most Valuable Player and NBA Finals Exacta Matchups. Let’s go over a few of them and discuss.

The NBA Championship odds have moved and it appears the books believe what everyone seems to know and that is the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be heading towards a NBA Finals matchup. Miami is dominating teams right now. During their eight game winning streak heading in to the all-star break, Miami won all eight games by double digits and they are playing incredible defensively which allows Miami to get a lot of fast break points.

Miami is the big favorite to win the title. 5Dimes has the Heat at +150 to win the title with Oklahoma City +500 and Chicago Bulls +525. While there are a handful of teams will have a shot or think they have a shot, it will be a major upset. The possibility has a better chance of happening in the West. Here are the top two NBA teams in the East and their odds.

Miami Heat
Odds to win NBA Championship +150
Odds to win Eastern Conference -155

Chicago Bulls
Odds to win NBA Championship +255
Odds to win Eastern Conference -155

After these two teams we get to some serious longshots especially when you consider that the next lowest odds according to the oddsmakers are the New York Knicks. I think most sports bettors outside of New York will tell you there is no way they are that good yet. That just goes to the point of it will be Chicago or Miami from the East. The next four teams look like this.

New York Knicks +1200
Boston Celtics +1900
Orlando Magic +2000
Philadelphia 76ers +200

Each of them has series flaws. We discussed the Knicks. Boston looks old and broken. While Rajon Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, the big three of Allen, Garnett & Pierce cannot carry a team any longer. Orlando will most likely be without Howard and they may not get out of the first round. The 76ers have hit a wall and are showing signs of weakness.

In the Western Conference, there are more teams with a chance to hit the big upset. But the oddsmakers have made Oklahoma City the odds on favorite with +135 odds. The next listed is the Lakers +550. It’s a little surprising that San Antonio keeps staying under the radar and is +700 odds to win the West.

Oklahoma City
Odds to win NBA Championship +150
Odds to win Western Conference -155

Los Angeles Lakers
Odds to win NBA Championship +1300
Odds to win Western Conference +550

The NBA MVP race is close according to the oddsmakers but most experts would tell you is this is LeBron’s ace to lose. If LeBron keeps on the same pace, he will finish with the best PER rating of all-time, better than Wilt Chamberlin, better than Michael Jordan. He is playing unbelievable and he’s shooting .550 from the field. The biggest thing that could get in a way is that Dwyane Wade is playing out of his mind.

The top 10 betting odds to win MVP go like this;

LeBron James +375
Kobe Brant +400
Dwight Howard +450
Dwyane Wade +525
Kevin Durant +650
Blake Griffin +1300
Derrick Rose +1300
Chris Paul +1500
Dirk Nowitzki +1700
Carmello Anthony +1750

No, Jeremy Lin will not be on the board so settle down New York fans.

One of my favorite NBA futures to bet is the NBA Finals Matchups where you can wager on the likely matchup. For example, Miami vs. Oklahoma pays +275 while a Thunder/Bulls matchup would pay +761. Here are some other matchups with lower odds.

Heat vs. Lakers +1010
Heat vs. Spurs +1280
Heat vs. Mavericks +1320
Heat vs. Clippers +1320

5Dimes has every possible matchup so visit 5dimes for the latest and full odds of NBA possible matchups.

NBA Future Odds and Early Spread Records

 NBA Betting
Jan 142012
 
 

We are less than a month in to the 2012 condensed version of the NBA regular season and there are a few early surprises. We take a quick look at how the sportsbooks view the chances of winning the NBA title and how these teams have done against the spread.

The Miami Heat are off to a fast start and are favored at online books at about +125 to win the NBA title. Against the spread, Miami is about .500 at 5-5 ATS. They’ve gone over the total 7 of the first 10 games.

It looks like the three best teams are the Heat, Bulls, Thunder and Lakers and that’s exactly how the oddsmakers see it. Both Chicago and Oklahoma City are also off to fast starts and both are +425 to win the title while the Lakers started slow but are playing well and are +525 to win it all. Chicago is 9-2 overall and 7-4 versus the spread while Oklahoma City is 9-2 overall and 5-6 ATS. The Lakers are 7-4 overall and 6-2 against the spread including 0-3 ATS on the road.

According to the odds, Dallas and the LA Clippers are next at +1550 to win the title. The 5-5 Mavericks have struggled and looked older this year. They are 6-4 against the spread after a rough start. The Clippers are much improved at 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS but expectations are up there now.

In the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia looks like they could be for real. Still +4250 in NBA Championship odds, the Sixers are 7-2 SU and a solid 8-1 against the spread. Another team improving is the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has no real shot to win the championship but they are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. A couple of other playoff teams are in Orlando and Atlanta. The Magic are just waiting to move on from Dwight Howard already but Van Gundy has them at 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. Atlanta has knocked off the Heat and Bulls this year. The Hawks are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Boston looks old and tired but at +2450 odds, probably shouldn’t count out the veterans. The Celtics are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS while in New York, the Knicks want to be contenders but they are inconsistent early on with a 5-4 SU record and 2-7 ATS including 0-4 vs. spread at the Garden.

Finally Cleveland isn’t going anywhere anytime soon but they are playing decent and off to a much better start this year at 4-5 SU (5-4 ATS). Toronto, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Detroit, Charlotte and Washington are all terrible. The Pistons are only 2-8 ATS.

In the Western Conference, it looks like San Antonio (+2450), Portland (+1850) and Denver (+2550) could be contenders while the Utah Jazz (+12500) are playing like one early on.

Looks like Minnesota, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento, Memphis, Houston and New Orleans are garbage.

Against the spread, Denver is 8-2 ATS. Sacramento is 3-7 ATS.

Shorter Schedule does affect NBA Betting

 NBA Betting
Jan 132012
 
 

After five months of hearing about nothing but lockouts, salary caps and mediation, sports betting fans awoke Christmas morning to find that Santa had left the NBA and more importantly, NBA betting under their trees. But, like a toy that carries the “some assembly required” warning, these gifts also force recipients to do a little work before they can enjoy their benefits.

 

NBA betting practitioners, at least those who hope to make a profit during this hardwood season, will have to assess what effect playing a 66-game compacted campaign will have on individual teams. Trying to stay a sawbuck ahead of their wagering masses, sportsbooks already have made that evaluation, adjusting future book odds to reflect how playing three games in four nights and as many as five contests in a week will impact both on-the-court and at-the-windows performance.

 

Let’s look at some of the leading contenders and more interesting teams. (Opening and current future book odds in parentheses):

 

Miami Heat (5/2, 9/4): The Heat has a relatively young core in LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh that should be able to withstand the rigors of a compacted schedule, which explains why sportsbooks have lowered the price on Miami winning an NBA Championship this season. On a daily basis, you’re almost always going to have to lay points with the Heat, a reality which led to just a 51-50-2 mark against the spread (ATS) last season.

 

Los Angeles Lakers (6/1, 13/2): Not only did the Lakers fail to land Chris Paul but they also lost NBA Sixth Man of the Year Lamar Odom to Dallas, which, coupled with a weak bench could wear on the perennial contenders come next spring. No wonder sportsbooks raised the odds on a Lakers title. LA was only 41-51 ATS last season.

 

Chicago Bulls (7/1, 11/2): Adding 3-point menace Richard Hamilton to a deep and energetic cast that includes league MVP Derrick Rose has convinced operators of sportsbooks that if the Heat succumb to the pressure, the Bulls may wind up hoisting championship hardware in June. With a pointspread record of 56-41-1, Chicago was kind to NBA betting practitioners a season ago and could cover a lot of games going away this season, as well.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (15/2, 13/2): Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook lead a contingent of young legs that should just be getting their second winds when many other teams are panting for breath in March and April. The Thunder certainly is a contender.

 

Dallas Mavericks (9/1, 11/1): Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and even Dirk Nowitzki are investigating AARP membership and the rest of the league figures to be gunning for the defending champions, reasons why enthusiasm for a repeat has waned among sportsbooks. Certainly, the Mavs looked old and tired in their Christmas day blowout to the Heat. Dallas was 60-40-2 ATS last season but harder times—for the team and for their betting followers—appear on the horizon.

 

Boston Celtics (12/1, 16/1): The Celtics are one of the few teams that have actually complained about the condensed schedule, a fact not lost on those who make odds. Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all have seen better (and certainly younger) days. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Boston wore down by next spring.

 

New York Knicks (22/1, 16/1): The acquisition of C Tyson Chandler (from Dallas) secures a front line of Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony that may be the best in the east. If Baron Davis and/or Mike Bibby can contribute in the backcourt, the Knicks could win the Atlantic Division. Of course, at 48-36-2 ATS, New York was a winner for bettors last season.

 

San Antonio Spurs (20/1, 40/1): The Spurs were exposed as old and undersized in the playoffs so there’s little confidence that playing more games in a shorter period of time will be anything but detrimental to San Antonio’s chances for a turnaround. Tim Duncan is near the end of his career.

 

Los Angeles Clippers (50/1, 20/1): After managing just one winning season in the last 19 years, the Clippers are being mentioned as legitimate final contenders, which would mean, they would tale LA from the Lakers. The pairing of Chris Paul with Blake Griffin is expected to reap immediate dividends and the Clippers picked up some veteran leadership in Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler, as well. Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

In addition to playing more games in fewer days, the compact schedule will impact NBA betting in another way: travel. Savvy NBA betting pros have known for a long time that it’s not so much the away court as the travel involved in getting to that court that makes it difficult to win on the road. That factor will be exasperated this season. NBA betting fans should be looking to bet against teams crossing time zones and playing their third game in four nights.