Houston Texans | Betting Blog

The AFC South is most likely the worst division in football. You have the heavily favored Houston Texans who some think could be a Super Bowl contender and the Tennessee Titans who might be competitive. Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts are expected to struggle this year.

The Houston Texans made the playoffs for the first time in team history last season and won a playoff game in spite of the fact that QB Matt Schaub missed the last month and a half of the season, and both RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson missed basically half of the season each. The defense will be hurt by the loss of LB/DE Mario Williams, but he was out for the last three months of the season as well last year. The offense should be back and healthy in the end, though the team is going to be searching for one of its rookie receivers, Dwight Jones, Keshawn Martin, or DeVier Posey to flank Johnson.

Houston -185
Tennessee +475
Jacksonville +2500
Indianapolis Colts +300

Since the Giants won Super Bowl XLVI, it seems the only thing anyone is talking about with regards to the NFL is where Peyton Manning will play in 2012 or if he will play at all. It seemed inevitable that Peyton would be playing football other than Indianapolis but Jim Irsay, just made his move, suggesting that if Manning wants to stay in Indianapolis, they could make it work. In another words, if Peyton wants to play for incentive money, the Colts will make it work with him and Andrew Luck. It’s doubtful that will happen but we will continue to watch and see.

The odds to win the 2013 AFC Conference are out and oddsmakers have the New England Patriots as the big favorite at +365 odds. Have the Patriots been figured out? Some experts are saying the Patriots lack a running game, a wide receiver that can spread the field and a lot of changes on defense. So if the Patriots should not be favored, who should it be in the AFC?

According to the oddsmakers, the Houston Texans are next at +495 odds. There are a lot of questions in terms of how the Texans do in free agency as its possible the Texans will only be able to keep one of their key players Arian Foster or Mario Williams. Foster is expected to receive the franchise tag and it’s widely believed Mario Williams will be playing somewhere else in 2013. With a healthy Matt Schaub this team will be good, how good is the question.

The next two teams will fight it out in the AFC North. The winner of that division, most likely Baltimore or Pittsburgh, will be a team to reckon with. As of now, Baltimore is +605 to win the AFC Conference and Pittsburgh is +705.

San Diego is always a sexy pick. With one of the best quarterbacks in football, the Chargers will always be in it. But for the first time in a long time, all four teams in the AFC West could be on the right track so it will make for a competitive division. The Chargers are listed at +805 with the Broncos +1605, Chiefs +2205 and Raiders +3050.

The New York Jets didn’t make the playoffs in 2011 and the pressure will be on both Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez to get the Jets back. It will be interesting to see if Ryan can get a hold of the locker room that he clearly lost last season and if Sanchez can regain the trust of the offense and the New York fans. Ryan may be wise to bring in Jeremy Lin, as he seems to not be able to do any wrong in New York. The books like the Jets chances, listing them at +1205 odds.

One team will a lot of intrigue is the Miami Dolphins. The odds list them at +2050. They brought in a new head coach from Green Bay in Joe Philbin and a new philosophy on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins have talent on board and if they add a franchise quarterback as they have been preaching to the fans, Miami could be a player in the AFC. According to Dolphins sources, their plan is Peyton Manning with Matt Flynn as a fall back option and they also could be in play to move up in the draft to select Robert Griffin.

Here is the full list of odds to win the 2013 AFC Conference.

Odds to win the 2013 AFC Conference

Baltimore Ravens             +605
Buffalo Bills        +5050
Cincinnati Bengals            +2205
Cleveland Browns             +6205
Denver Broncos                +1605
Houston Texans                +495
Indianapolis Colts             +2050
Jacksonville Jaguars     +7250
Kansas City Chiefs            +2205
Miami Dolphins                 +2050
New England Patriots     +365
New York Jets                   +1205
Oakland Raiders                +3050
Pittsburgh Steelers           +705
San Diego Chargers          +805
Tennessee Titans              +2675

NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds Update for Sunday, January 15th

Bookmaker.eu

Houston Texans +7.5, o36.5, +280

Baltimore Ravens -7.5, u36.5, -330

5Dimes

Houston Texans +9 -135, o36.5, +290

Baltimore Ravens -9 +115, u36.5, -350

Bovada.lv

Houston Texans +9 -130, o36.5

Baltimore Ravens -9 +110, u36.5

Consensus Public Betting

Houston Texans – 31%

Baltimore Ravens – 69%

Over/Under Trends

HOU is 5-1 to the UNDER l6 Jan. games
HOU is 13-6 to the OVER L19 games as an underdog
BAL is 19-7 to the UNDER L26 games vs. AFC South
BAL is 11-6 to the UNDER L17 games after two or more consecutive losses

ATS Trends

HOU is 1-4 ATS L5 games vs. BAL
HOU is 4-1 ATS L5 games vs. AFC North
HOU is 8-4 ATS L12 games revenging a loss against opponent
HOU is 6-1 ATS L7 games when playing against a team with a winning record
BAL is 1-4 ATS L5 home games as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
BAL is 2-5 ATS L7 games vs. AFC South
BAL is 3-0 ATS L3 games after a bye week
BAL is 5-0 ATS L5 games when playing against a team with a winning record

Despite their opposite reputations as an offensive threat (Houston) and defensive powerhouse (Baltimore), the Texans and Ravens are pretty similar teams when the numbers are compared. Both ranked middle-of-the-road on offense and rely strongly on their running backs, while the two clubs were stingy in allowing yards and points, ranking right next to one another in both categories. The deciding factors in this game should be experience and home field. The Ravens excel playing in Baltimore and already own a home win over the Texans. On top of that, key members like Flacco, Rice and Reed are all playoff-tested, while Lewis is a former Super Bowl MVP.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 21, Texans 13
Current Odds: Baltimore -7.5

Houston: 10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS
Baltimore: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS

Houston most recently:
When playing in January are 3-3
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games

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AFC South Betting Odds

Odds to win 2013 AFC Conference

Texans at Ravens Betting Update

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens