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Jun 172012
 
 

The Miami Heat are back in the NBA Finals. They were able to go on the road and steal Game 2 of this series to flip home court advantage back in their favor. That being said, if they want to finish this series at the American Airlines Arena, they are going to have to win three straight games to get the job done. The Oklahoma City Thunder know that they need just one of the three games on the road to be able to come back to Chesapeake Energy Arena with a shot at clinching their first ever championship.

 

Game 3 of this series starts on Sunday night, and one of these teams will be able to break the de facto deadlock. Miami and Oklahoma City are both -115 right now at Bookmaker Sportsbook to win this series, and we really could see this one going either way.

 

The Heat are now essentially at full strength, and they are getting great contributions from all of the parties that need to be accounted for. LeBron James has now had back to back games where he has reset his all-time high for points in an NBA Finals game, scoring 30 in Game 1 and 32 in Game 2. Dwyane Wade hasn’t been the greatest, but he did account for 24 points in Game 2 to help lead his team. Most importantly though, is Chris Bosh, who had 16 points and 15 rebounds for the Heat three nights ago. The key stat for Bosh, though? He played 41 minutes, just as many as most of the starters did.

 

Mario Chalmers had 16 points in Game 1, but he faded in Game 2, scoring just three. However, Shane Battier has been a man on a mission, hitting a slew of shots from the outside on a regular basis. He had five triples in Game 2 and came away with a monster 17 points that proved to be the difference in the game.

 

Oklahoma City has gotten off to some really slow starts in this series thus far, and it needs to improve that or risk getting run off of the court in South Beach in Games 3, 4, and 5. Russell Westbrook is taking a lot of heat for taking so many shots, but we think that he did just fine in Game 2, scoring 27 points, coming down with eight boards and seven assists against just two turnovers. Kevin Durant had 32, while James Harden came off of the bench to score 21. Nick Collison had a good game in Game 1, accounting for eight points and 10 boards, but he and the rest of his role playing teammates really had nothing to be thrilled about in Game 2. Derek Fisher and Thabo Sefolosha combined to go just 1-of-7 from beyond the arc, and that isn’t going to cut it to say the least.

 

Game 3 takes place on Sunday, Game 4 is on Tuesday, and Game 5 is going to be on Thursday night. All three games will take place at American Airlines Arena. The scene of this series will shift back to Oklahoma City for Game 6 if necessary a week from today.

 

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Jun 122012
 
 

The 2012 NBA Finals was projected to be the Miami Heat against the Oklahoma City Thunder for quite some time. Virtually every step of the way, from the first tip on Christmas night all the way to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Miami was the team that was the favorite, and usually the odds on favorite, to make it to a second straight NBA Finals. Oklahoma City was that up and coming team that was right on the verge last year of the Finals, and anything less than a championship this year would probably be looked upon as a disappointment.

 

That might not be a surprise, but what is a bit shocking is the fact that it is the Thunder that are the -165 favorites on the NBA Finals betting lines in this series and not the Heat.

 

Of course, those who had blinders on for most of the season would probably think that Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh would make up the best threesome on the court. Last year in the NBA Finals though, the Dallas Mavericks found a way to really frustrate these three stars, and parlayed that with the sharpshooting of Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki, and the outcome was predictable.

 

This year, we’ll think about it in foresight instead of hindsight. Oklahoma City has three players in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden that actually average almost as many points per game here in the playoffs than the Super Friends in South Beach. Beyond that, the next best players on Miami are Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem, and Mike Miller. Meanwhile, the next five for the Thunder are Serge Ibaka, Derek Fisher, Thabo Sefolosha, and Kendrick Perkins. Which squad would you rather have?

 

There’s almost something to really be said about the fact that what these two have done in the postseason really isn’t all that comparable. Miami took care of the New York Knicks in the first round, had its struggles with the Indiana Pacers in the second round, and then needed the distance to knock off the Boston Celtics in the conference finals. All told, the Heat have played 18 games thus far. The Thunder? Just 15. They swept the defending champs from Dallas, blasted past the Los Angeles Lakers in five games, and then took out the San Antonio Spurs. The last series came after San Antonio opened up a 2-0 series lead. Not only did Oklahoma City beat the Spurs to end that skid, but from that point on, it dominated the series and ended up winning in just six games.

 

This year, these two teams hooked up in NBA betting action twice, with the home team winning and covering both games. If that trend holds, the Thunder will have the upper hand, playing Games 1, 2, 6, and 7 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena.

 

This is the first time that the Thunder have played in the NBA Finals in this form. They did make it to the Promised Land once in 1996 as the Seattle Supersonics, but that team was never the favorite to win it all. This one has the upper hand and has home court advantage in the series.

 

The Heat are playing under the pressure of protecting the job for Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, who really might be in some danger if this is the second straight year that his team gets knocked out of the playoffs in the NBA Finals, thus ending without a championship.

Jun 052012
 
 

The 2012 NBA playoffs have officially become quite interesting. It really looked as though the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs were on a crash course for one another in the NBA Finals, as they were both up 2-0 in their respect conference finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics could have both been had at some remarkable prices at that point, with OKC being as good as about 6 to 1, and Boston being as high as 50 to 1 at some online sportsbooks. However, the scripts have been flipped at this point, and the situation is a heck of a lot more interesting with a ton of variables.

 

We’ll start in the West, where the Thunder have all of a sudden not just stopped San Antonio’s 20-game winning streak, but they have rolled off three straight victories as well. Thanks to the efforts of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and a lot of the role players like Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City is just one win away from its first NBA Finals. Now, the Thunder are the favorites to win the NBA Finals at +145 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

 

That leaves the Spurs in some trouble. They are +415 right now to win it all, and it was only about a week ago that they were odds on favorites. All of a sudden, the team looks old, and San Antonio’s role players that were consistently coming up with good efforts are failing when they have to make plays. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are starting to look like a bit of an old trio against the youthful Thunder. However, if there is a team that you would want to play on with its back in the corner, this would be the team, as there aren’t all that many situations in which San Antonio and its veterans haven’t played in and succeeded in.

 

In the East, the Heat are still the overwhelming favorites. They are the +165 favorites to win it all out of the East, while the Celtics are still easily the longest shots on the board at +1200.

 

We are definitely questioning Miami right now, though. When it has come time to put away games in the clutch, the Heat have struggled at times this year and in the past, and losing Game 4 in Beantown was the perfect example of just that happening. LeBron James didn’t get the final shot off of regulation, and the team went on to score just two points in a very frustrating overtime period. The good news for the Heat is that Chris Bosh is expected to be back in the fold soon, potentially as early as Tuesday night’s Game 5.

 

Head Coach Doc Rivers warned the rest of the world following the win in Game 4 of this series that his Celtics haven’t played their best basketball yet, and they haven’t put together a complete 48 minute game yet. If that really is the case, and the C’s do find some more to give, they might be the steal of the moment on the NBA Finals betting lines at 12 to 1. Rajon Rondo is almost certainly the MVP of the playoffs, and there is no denying that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett still have game to get the job done.

 

The NBA Finals could be set as soon as Thursday. Miami will host Boston on Tuesday night in Game 5, and whichever team takes that clash could close out the series and take the Eastern Conference crown on Thursday night back at the TD Garden. If there is a Game 7, it will take place at American Airlines Arena on Saturday night.

 

Out West, Oklahoma City will be hosting the Spurs for Game 6 on Wednesday. Should San Antonio come on the road and win the game, it will earn a trip back to the AT&T Center, where it would play the do-or-die Game 7 against the Thunder on Friday.

Feb 262012
 
 

The NBA is at the all-star break and for the next week(s), Dwight Howard will dominate the talk shows as the Orlando Magic will need to decide whether it makes more sense to try and move Howard for the best pieces they can get in return before the trade deadline or try to add some pieces around Howard, don’t trade him and just hope he won’t leave as a free agent. The latter is a bit unlikely and Howard will most likely be moved. Look for the Lakers to try and make one last push.

With or without Howard in Orlando, the oddsmakers have updated betting odds for the NBA future odds including odds to win the Eastern Conference, odds to win the Western Conference and odds to win NBA Championship. We also show updated odds on the Most Valuable Player and NBA Finals Exacta Matchups. Let’s go over a few of them and discuss.

The NBA Championship odds have moved and it appears the books believe what everyone seems to know and that is the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be heading towards a NBA Finals matchup. Miami is dominating teams right now. During their eight game winning streak heading in to the all-star break, Miami won all eight games by double digits and they are playing incredible defensively which allows Miami to get a lot of fast break points.

Miami is the big favorite to win the title. 5Dimes has the Heat at +150 to win the title with Oklahoma City +500 and Chicago Bulls +525. While there are a handful of teams will have a shot or think they have a shot, it will be a major upset. The possibility has a better chance of happening in the West. Here are the top two NBA teams in the East and their odds.

Miami Heat
Odds to win NBA Championship +150
Odds to win Eastern Conference -155

Chicago Bulls
Odds to win NBA Championship +255
Odds to win Eastern Conference -155

After these two teams we get to some serious longshots especially when you consider that the next lowest odds according to the oddsmakers are the New York Knicks. I think most sports bettors outside of New York will tell you there is no way they are that good yet. That just goes to the point of it will be Chicago or Miami from the East. The next four teams look like this.

New York Knicks +1200
Boston Celtics +1900
Orlando Magic +2000
Philadelphia 76ers +200

Each of them has series flaws. We discussed the Knicks. Boston looks old and broken. While Rajon Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, the big three of Allen, Garnett & Pierce cannot carry a team any longer. Orlando will most likely be without Howard and they may not get out of the first round. The 76ers have hit a wall and are showing signs of weakness.

In the Western Conference, there are more teams with a chance to hit the big upset. But the oddsmakers have made Oklahoma City the odds on favorite with +135 odds. The next listed is the Lakers +550. It’s a little surprising that San Antonio keeps staying under the radar and is +700 odds to win the West.

Oklahoma City
Odds to win NBA Championship +150
Odds to win Western Conference -155

Los Angeles Lakers
Odds to win NBA Championship +1300
Odds to win Western Conference +550

The NBA MVP race is close according to the oddsmakers but most experts would tell you is this is LeBron’s ace to lose. If LeBron keeps on the same pace, he will finish with the best PER rating of all-time, better than Wilt Chamberlin, better than Michael Jordan. He is playing unbelievable and he’s shooting .550 from the field. The biggest thing that could get in a way is that Dwyane Wade is playing out of his mind.

The top 10 betting odds to win MVP go like this;

LeBron James +375
Kobe Brant +400
Dwight Howard +450
Dwyane Wade +525
Kevin Durant +650
Blake Griffin +1300
Derrick Rose +1300
Chris Paul +1500
Dirk Nowitzki +1700
Carmello Anthony +1750

No, Jeremy Lin will not be on the board so settle down New York fans.

One of my favorite NBA futures to bet is the NBA Finals Matchups where you can wager on the likely matchup. For example, Miami vs. Oklahoma pays +275 while a Thunder/Bulls matchup would pay +761. Here are some other matchups with lower odds.

Heat vs. Lakers +1010
Heat vs. Spurs +1280
Heat vs. Mavericks +1320
Heat vs. Clippers +1320

5Dimes has every possible matchup so visit 5dimes for the latest and full odds of NBA possible matchups.

Feb 022012
 
 

The Miami Heat will play the Oklahoma City Thunder in the finals this year. The NBA Championship odds say that’s a good possibility of happening.

The NBA all-star game is about three weeks away on Sunday, February 26, 2012 at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. In most NBA seasons it’s usually the all-star break that signals the good teams that it’s time to get going and you’ll often see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.

In the Eastern Conference it’s hard to imagine anyone other than the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls representing the East in the NBA finals. The next level of teams seem to be the Atlanta Hawks who have beat the Bulls and Heat this year, the 76ers who also beat the Bulls and have a date with Miami tomorrow and the one surprise team is the Indiana Pacers.

Odds to win the Eastern Conference.

Eastern Conference   -   2/2/2012 7:35 PM (EST)
Miami Heat -140
Chicago Bulls +255
Boston Celtics +1500
Philadelphia 76ers +1500
Orlando Magic +1900
New York Knicks +1900
Atlanta Hawks +2300
Indiana Pacers +3100
Milwaukee Bucks +11000
New Jersey Nets +11000
Cleveland Cavaliers +15000
Toronto Raptors +22500
Charlotte Bobcats +30000
Detroit Pistons +30000
Washington Wizards +40000

 

The Western Conference could be a little more wide open as it has been in recent years. Oklahoma City looks like the top team in the West and the duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook is only going to get better.  Other possible championship contenders are the Dallas Mavericks (defending champs), Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers and LA Lakers.

Odds to win Western Conference

Western Conference   -   2/2/2012 7:35 PM (EST)
Oklahoma City Thunder +180
Los Angeles Lakers +370
Los Angeles Clippers +700
Dallas Mavericks +700
San Antonio Spurs +1250
Portland Trailblazers +1250
Denver Nuggets +1900
Memphis Grizzlies +1900
Houston Rockets +4500
Utah Jazz +6000
Minnesota Timberwolves +9000
Phoenix Suns +11000
Golden State Warriors +11000
Sacramento Kings +22500
New Orleans Hornets +30000

 

5Dimes Sports Book already has odds posted on who will be the NBA finals matchup. The Heat vs. Thunder is favored at +390, followed by the Heat vs. Lakers at +726, Bulls vs. Thunder at +928 and both Heat vs. Clippers and Heat vs. Mavericks at +1340.

Odds to win NBA Finals

NBA Championship 2011-2012   -   2/2/2012 7:35 PM (EST)
Miami Heat +175
Oklahoma City Thunder +500
Chicago Bulls +550
Los Angeles Lakers +1000
Los Angeles Clippers +1600
Dallas Mavericks +1600
Boston Celtics +3300
Portland Trailblazers +3300
San Antonio Spurs +3300
Philadelphia 76ers +3300
Orlando Magic +4000
New York Knicks +4000
Memphis Grizzlies +4000
Denver Nuggets +4000
Atlanta Hawks +5000
Indiana Pacers +6600
Houston Rockets +10000
Utah Jazz +15000
Milwaukee Bucks +25000
New Jersey Nets +25000
Golden State Warriors +25000
Phoenix Suns +25000
Minnesota Timberwolves +25000
Cleveland Cavaliers +35000
Toronto Raptors +50000
Sacramento Kings +50000
Detroit Pistons +75000
New Orleans Hornets +75000
Charlotte Bobcats +75000
Washington Wizards +100000

 

Do you think we will see a  Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder finals? The NBA Championship odds are betting on it!

Jan 142012
 
 

We are less than a month in to the 2012 condensed version of the NBA regular season and there are a few early surprises. We take a quick look at how the sportsbooks view the chances of winning the NBA title and how these teams have done against the spread.

The Miami Heat are off to a fast start and are favored at online books at about +125 to win the NBA title. Against the spread, Miami is about .500 at 5-5 ATS. They’ve gone over the total 7 of the first 10 games.

It looks like the three best teams are the Heat, Bulls, Thunder and Lakers and that’s exactly how the oddsmakers see it. Both Chicago and Oklahoma City are also off to fast starts and both are +425 to win the title while the Lakers started slow but are playing well and are +525 to win it all. Chicago is 9-2 overall and 7-4 versus the spread while Oklahoma City is 9-2 overall and 5-6 ATS. The Lakers are 7-4 overall and 6-2 against the spread including 0-3 ATS on the road.

According to the odds, Dallas and the LA Clippers are next at +1550 to win the title. The 5-5 Mavericks have struggled and looked older this year. They are 6-4 against the spread after a rough start. The Clippers are much improved at 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS but expectations are up there now.

In the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia looks like they could be for real. Still +4250 in NBA Championship odds, the Sixers are 7-2 SU and a solid 8-1 against the spread. Another team improving is the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has no real shot to win the championship but they are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. A couple of other playoff teams are in Orlando and Atlanta. The Magic are just waiting to move on from Dwight Howard already but Van Gundy has them at 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. Atlanta has knocked off the Heat and Bulls this year. The Hawks are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Boston looks old and tired but at +2450 odds, probably shouldn’t count out the veterans. The Celtics are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS while in New York, the Knicks want to be contenders but they are inconsistent early on with a 5-4 SU record and 2-7 ATS including 0-4 vs. spread at the Garden.

Finally Cleveland isn’t going anywhere anytime soon but they are playing decent and off to a much better start this year at 4-5 SU (5-4 ATS). Toronto, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Detroit, Charlotte and Washington are all terrible. The Pistons are only 2-8 ATS.

In the Western Conference, it looks like San Antonio (+2450), Portland (+1850) and Denver (+2550) could be contenders while the Utah Jazz (+12500) are playing like one early on.

Looks like Minnesota, Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento, Memphis, Houston and New Orleans are garbage.

Against the spread, Denver is 8-2 ATS. Sacramento is 3-7 ATS.

Jan 132012
 
 

After five months of hearing about nothing but lockouts, salary caps and mediation, sports betting fans awoke Christmas morning to find that Santa had left the NBA and more importantly, NBA betting under their trees. But, like a toy that carries the “some assembly required” warning, these gifts also force recipients to do a little work before they can enjoy their benefits.

 

NBA betting practitioners, at least those who hope to make a profit during this hardwood season, will have to assess what effect playing a 66-game compacted campaign will have on individual teams. Trying to stay a sawbuck ahead of their wagering masses, sportsbooks already have made that evaluation, adjusting future book odds to reflect how playing three games in four nights and as many as five contests in a week will impact both on-the-court and at-the-windows performance.

 

Let’s look at some of the leading contenders and more interesting teams. (Opening and current future book odds in parentheses):

 

Miami Heat (5/2, 9/4): The Heat has a relatively young core in LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh that should be able to withstand the rigors of a compacted schedule, which explains why sportsbooks have lowered the price on Miami winning an NBA Championship this season. On a daily basis, you’re almost always going to have to lay points with the Heat, a reality which led to just a 51-50-2 mark against the spread (ATS) last season.

 

Los Angeles Lakers (6/1, 13/2): Not only did the Lakers fail to land Chris Paul but they also lost NBA Sixth Man of the Year Lamar Odom to Dallas, which, coupled with a weak bench could wear on the perennial contenders come next spring. No wonder sportsbooks raised the odds on a Lakers title. LA was only 41-51 ATS last season.

 

Chicago Bulls (7/1, 11/2): Adding 3-point menace Richard Hamilton to a deep and energetic cast that includes league MVP Derrick Rose has convinced operators of sportsbooks that if the Heat succumb to the pressure, the Bulls may wind up hoisting championship hardware in June. With a pointspread record of 56-41-1, Chicago was kind to NBA betting practitioners a season ago and could cover a lot of games going away this season, as well.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (15/2, 13/2): Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook lead a contingent of young legs that should just be getting their second winds when many other teams are panting for breath in March and April. The Thunder certainly is a contender.

 

Dallas Mavericks (9/1, 11/1): Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and even Dirk Nowitzki are investigating AARP membership and the rest of the league figures to be gunning for the defending champions, reasons why enthusiasm for a repeat has waned among sportsbooks. Certainly, the Mavs looked old and tired in their Christmas day blowout to the Heat. Dallas was 60-40-2 ATS last season but harder times—for the team and for their betting followers—appear on the horizon.

 

Boston Celtics (12/1, 16/1): The Celtics are one of the few teams that have actually complained about the condensed schedule, a fact not lost on those who make odds. Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all have seen better (and certainly younger) days. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Boston wore down by next spring.

 

New York Knicks (22/1, 16/1): The acquisition of C Tyson Chandler (from Dallas) secures a front line of Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony that may be the best in the east. If Baron Davis and/or Mike Bibby can contribute in the backcourt, the Knicks could win the Atlantic Division. Of course, at 48-36-2 ATS, New York was a winner for bettors last season.

 

San Antonio Spurs (20/1, 40/1): The Spurs were exposed as old and undersized in the playoffs so there’s little confidence that playing more games in a shorter period of time will be anything but detrimental to San Antonio’s chances for a turnaround. Tim Duncan is near the end of his career.

 

Los Angeles Clippers (50/1, 20/1): After managing just one winning season in the last 19 years, the Clippers are being mentioned as legitimate final contenders, which would mean, they would tale LA from the Lakers. The pairing of Chris Paul with Blake Griffin is expected to reap immediate dividends and the Clippers picked up some veteran leadership in Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler, as well. Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

In addition to playing more games in fewer days, the compact schedule will impact NBA betting in another way: travel. Savvy NBA betting pros have known for a long time that it’s not so much the away court as the travel involved in getting to that court that makes it difficult to win on the road. That factor will be exasperated this season. NBA betting fans should be looking to bet against teams crossing time zones and playing their third game in four nights.