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Jun 262012
 
 

We are still a few months away from really thinking about NFL betting action, but the Super Bowl odds are always out at 5Dimes Sportsbook, and we are going to be taking a quick look at some of the teams that have been movers and shakers since the end of last season on the 2013 Super Bowl odds.

 

We’ll start with one of the teams that has seen a lot of action on it over the course of the last several weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles (+1100). The Eagles really had a strong NFL Draft and the offseason, and they look to have done quite a bit to sure up their defense. The Achilles heel was right up the middle, and those problems might have been solved in the NFL Draft by taking DT Fletcher Cox in the first round and LB Mychal Kendricks in the second. The team also added LB DeMeco Ryans from the Houston Texans in a trade in the offseason, and then drafted DE Vinny Curry to add yet another pass rusher to a team that already has a slew of great rush ends and linebackers. If QB Michael Vick can take care of the football, this is a team that will do a heck of a lot better than its 8-8 campaign last year.

 

There also seems to be some budding enthusiasm about the San Francisco 49ers (+1200). The Niners were just a few plays away from the Super Bowl last year, and they could be back for more in 2012. QB Alex Smith clearly has control of the team, and the rest of the NFC West really doesn’t look like it did all that much to improve its positioning. WRs Randy Moss and Mario Manningham were both great signings for a team that didn’t have all that much in the way of wide receivers, and San Fran also added first round pick WR AJ Jenkins as well. Keep an eye on RB LaMichael James, who becomes a great change of pace back as well to RBs Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and Brandon Jacobs.

 

As far as teams that are going in the wrong direction, we have to talk about the St. Louis Rams (+9000). No one really expected to see the Rams do all that much this year anyway, but a perceived relatively weak NFL Draft didn’t help either. St. Louis hitched itself to QB Sam Bradford by passing on QB Robert Griffin III, and it traded down quite a bit as well to get a lot of picks. DT Michael Brockers still felt like a bit of a reach for the Rams where they ended up at No. 14, and with their three second round picks, they got a lot of speedy players in WR Brian Quick, DB Janoris Jenkins, and RB Isaiah Pead, but none of the three really strike us as tremendous starters that are going to help this team immediately.

 

The perception of the Cleveland Browns (+22500) is definitely going in the wrong direction as well. The Browns have already essentially named their first round NFL Draft pick, QB Brandon Weeden as the starter even though he is younger than QB Colt McCoy, who has been in this league now for two years. RB Trent Richardson will be explosive for sure, but is he really capable of getting around the defenses for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens? It just doesn’t seem like it. Losing out on RB Peyton Hillis in the offseason really didn’t help matters either, and we can definitely see why the Browns are going to be so bad once again in 2012.

Jan 222012
 
 

The NFC Championship game continues to see a lot of betting action with the Giants getting a little more than 57% of the betting action.

The current odds at Bookmaker.eu

NY Giants +2, o40.5, +115
San Francisco -2. u40.5, -135

The current odds at 5Dimes

NY Giants +1 +100, o40.5, +100
San Francisco -1 -120, u40.5, -127

The current odds at Bovada.lv

NY Giants +3 -140, 42E
San Francisco -3 +120, u42 -120

 

Jan 202012
 
 

No Super Bowl winner has won less than 10 regular season games (Giants).

The Patriots won 13 regular season games, none against a team with a winning record. New England had second easiest schedule in NFL.

Tom Brady is 9-2 at home in the playoffs in his career.

Baltimore is 9-0 this year when Ray Rice gets 20 or more carries.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 6 games this year against teams with a winning record.

New England has gone over the total in 8 of the last 9 games.

New England has won 9 games in a row. Baltimore has won 8 of last 10.

New England is first in total offense in the AFC. Baltimore is 3rd in total defense in the AFC.

Although Tom Brady is 4-1 in AFC Championship games, Brady has only a 83.7 passer rating in these games on 91 of 143 for 1000 yards with 6 tds and 5 picks.

Since getting blown out by the Saints on the road, the Giants have beaten the Cowboys, Jets and Packers on the road.

The Patriots are 15-4 all-time against the AFC North in the regular season since the division was formed in 2002.

The only AFC North losses for New England are against the Steelers (three) and Browns (one). New England is 1-1 against the AFC North in the postseason with a 2004 AFC Championship Game win at Pittsburgh and a 2009 loss at home to Baltimore.

The majority of TV experts are predicting a Patriots/Giants Super Bowl.

 

A LOOK AROUND THE WEB ON RAVENS AT PATRIOTS

Andy Benoit says the Patriots’ offense is the best the Ravens have seen all season, but Ray Lewis’ defense is the best the Patriots have seen as well.

Harbaugh is 5-3 in the playoffs, with each of his losses to the AFC’s Super Bowl representative that season. That’s not bad. But it’s not his goal or the goal of his football team. Making it to the Super Bowl is, and last time I checked, Harbaugh was waiting on his first trip there with the Ravens.

Pete Prisco says Ray Rice might be key for the Ravens, but they have to make some plays down the field, and Joe Flacco will – it just won’t be enough.

Mike Freeman says the Patriots have the easiest rode to the Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick era, maybe the easiest road of any potential Super Bowl champion in years.

Ryan Wilson says in order for the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl, the defense will have to have its best game against Brady. Offensively, Joe Flacco will need to step up and avoid silly mistakes.

Will Brinson says the Patriots are a shockingly high favorite in this game and are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick believes S Ed Reed is one of the best safeties to ever play. The feelings are mutual from Reed to New England’s offense. “You have to keep your eyes on all of them,” Reed said. “They’ve got a bunch of weapons and we know that.”

OC Cam Cameron doesn’t believe the notion that QB Joe Flacco needs to match Tom Brady throw for throw in Sunday’s AFC Championship. “We’re not going out there trying to outperform the other QB,” Cameron said. “We’re trying to play to the way the defense is playing us.”

The Patriots know they have to do a better job against Ravens DT Haloti Ngata, who had two sacks in the 2010 regular-season matchup between the two teams.

For the second consecutive day, S Ed Reed (ankle) is the only player listed on the injury report. Reed was limited in Thursday’s practice. Reed is expected to play after rolling his ankle at the end of Baltimore’s 20-13 divisional round win over Houston.

“I just missed practice, that’s all,” Brady said. “Not much more than that, really. We’re facing a great team, great challenges — certainly the best team we’ve faced all year. Everyone needs to be at full strength, though. It’s going to be a very physical, tough, hard-nosed game. We need everyone at full strength.”

John Clayton says, For the Ravens to win, they must clean up several things. If not, the Patriots will be heading to their fifth Super Bowl with Tom Brady at quarterback.

Jamison Hensley: As we’ve seen so far in the playoffs, home field has really been an advantage. Only one home team (Green Bay) has lost so far this postseason.

A LOOK AROUND ON THE WEB ON GIANTS AT 49ERS

We are not going to be denied,” safety Antrel Rolle said. “We are not going to be denied at this point. We understand what we have as a team. It’s not all talent, it’s about chemistry and we are jelling at this point. Coaches and players being on the same page at the same time. We have one mind, to win a championship.”

Andy Benoit says the 49ers may have made believers out of some with their old school style back in Week 10, but the Giants hadn’t gelled on the O-line and were without Ahmad Bradshaw.

Pete Prisco says Frank Gore will have to get the running game going for the 49ers, but the Giants are following the same formula they did when they won it all in 2007.

Ryan Wilson says it took almost seven years, but Alex Smith is finally playing like a first-round draft pick and needs to sustain his success.

New York isn’t playing like the 2007 version of themselves; they’re playing like last season’s Super Bowl champs.

The Giants and 49ers met six times in the playoffs from the 1981 to 1993 seasons. Four times the victor won the Super Bowl.

Is Las Vegas hoping for a 49ers win?

The Giants are the best team remaining, with a high-powered offense to go with a staunch defense.

Jan 182012
 
 

The San Francisco 49ers will host the New York Giants for the right to be NFC Champions and play in Super Bowl XLVI. The 49ers are a 2.5 point favorite in most sportsbooks.

Many football fans still don’t respect the 49ers season and continue to wait for the hammer to fall. Many believe the dominant Niners defense is the only reason why they are in the NFC Championship and Alex Smith still has many doubters.

The 49ers were 13-3 this year and earned the number two seed. They were in every game they played and the three losses were against Dallas in overtime back in week two (27-24), at Baltimore 16-6 in Primetime on Thanksgiving in what many people billed as the Harbaugh bowl and a 21-19 road loss in Arizona. They are road tested with road wins over the Bengals, Eagles, Lions and Redskins.

It was a small coming out party for Alex Smith who many inside the 49ers organization didn’t believe that Smith was the future quarterback but new head coach Jim Harbaugh never wavered and stood by his quarterback since he strolled in to San Francisco. Smith completed 61.3% of his passes on the season with 273 completions on 445 attempts, good for a 7.07 average. He tossed 17 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. Smith finished with a 90.7 RAT.

San Francisco had two quality wins at home over the Giants (27-20) and the Steelers (203). The Giants were back in November and the Steelers were on December 19th against a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger. Other home wins for the Niners include a 33-17 win over Seattle, a 48-3 thrashing of the Buccaneers and wins against the Browns, Cardinals and Rams. Last week in the divisional playoffs, San Francisco outplayed (both offensively and defensively) the Saints in a 36-32 win. New Orleans was predicted by many to go to the Super Bowl.

The 49ers were 7-0-1 ATS at home and 8-3 ATS as a favorite.

Make no mistake, defense is the identity of the San Francisco 49ers. They were 1st in total defense in the NFC and 1st in rushing defense in the NFC. On total offense, they were on the bottom of the NFC at 14th.

The New York Giants got hot at the right time. After losing 23-10 at home to Washington on December 18th, the Giants needed two win the last two regular season games over the Jets and Cowboys to win the NFC East at 8-8 and earn a first round home playoff game. They dominated the Falcons at home on way to a 27-2 win.

The G-Men are a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They are as capable as anyone as they showed last week with a dominating 37-20 win in Green Bay over the defending Super Bowl champions. The Giants are very streaky. After starting the season with a loss, they reeled off three straight wins and 6 out of 7 to start 6-2. But they also left Giants fans scratching their heads at times with a home loss to Seattle, and four straight losses at the end of November that had many wondering if not only could the Giants make the playoffs but would Tom Coughlin be fired at the end of the year.

With record setting years other quarterbacks like Rodgers, Brady and Brees had this year, Eli Manning had flown under the radar for much of the year but Manning, who already has one Super Bowl title, clearly has established himself as one of the elite quarterbacks. Manning tossed 440+ yards three times this year and another five 300+ games. He set a record by throwing 15 4th quarter touchdowns this year. His final regular season numbers show 359 for 589, good for a 61% completion rate and 4,933 yards. He tossed 29 touchdowns with 16 picks and ended up with a 92.9 RAT. When the Giants were down in any game this year, Manning was at his best, going 226-for-3655 for 3,063 years with 21 touchdowns and 9 picks. His RAT during these times was a 100.2.

I am willing to give the 49ers their due on a phenomenal season but I like Tom Coughlin in revenge situations. Eli Manning should be the difference and I am looking for the Giants to win this game outright in a low scoring game.

Jan 162012
 
 

A lot of football experts assumed either the Green Bay Packers or the New Orleans Saints would be representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLVI but instead either the 49ers or Giants will play for the title. Sportsbooks are said to be hoping for anything but a New York Giants win due to some earlier 100-1 odds.

According to Bovada.lv, New England is 6/5 odds to win the Super Bowl followed by San Francisco and New York at 3/1 and Baltimore at 6/1.

The AFC Championship has the Patriots as 7.5 point favorites over the Ravens while the 49ers are 2.5 favorites over the Giants in the NFC Championship.

Jan 142012
 
 

NFL Divisional Playoffs Odds Update for Saturday, January 14th

 

Bookmaker.eu

New Orleans Saints -3 -130, o47 -110, -200

San Francisco 49ers +3 +110, u47 -110, +170

 

5Dimes

New Orleans Saints -3.5 -105, o46.5 -110, -185

San Francisco 49ers +3.5 -115, u46.5 -110, +160

 

Bovada.lv

New Orleans Saints -4 -105, o47.5 -105, -190

San Francisco 49ers +4 -115, u47.5 -115, +165

 

Consensus Public Betting

New Orleans Saints – 66%

San Francisco 49ers – 34%

 

Over/Under Trends

NOS is 9-1 to the OVER L10 playoff games

NOS is 7-1 to the OVER L8 games vs. NFC West

SFX is 8-3 to the UNDER L11 games

SFX is 5-0 to the OVER L5 games vs. NOS

 

ATS Trends

NOS is 12-3 ATS L15 games as a favorite

NOS is 5-11 ATS L16 Jan. games

NOS is 7-1 ATS L8 games when playing against a team with a winning record

NOS is 3-5 ATS L8 games vs. NFC West

SFX is 3-10 ATS L13 games vs. NOS

SFX is 7-0 ATS L7 home games

SFX is 8-3 ATS L11 games vs. NFC

SFX is 7-3 ATS L10 games after two or more consecutive wins

 

Rankings

NOS is 1st in the total offense in the NFL

NOS is 1st in passing offense in the NFL

NOS is 12th in total defense in the NFL

SFX is 14th in total offense in the NFC

SFX is 1st in total defense in the NFL

SFX is 1st in rushing defense in the NFL